Lately, I’ve noticed many articles on home invasions in the Greater Toronto Area. I was wondering if they had increased recently. A gut feeling is one thing. Seeing statistics is another. I decided to see if the Durham Region Police Service had any statistics on home invasions. They did not. However, their dashboard contains statistics on violent crime in the Durham Region (where I reside).

I particularly looked for year-over-year statistics. For this post, I decided not to narrow the search down to the various municipalities within the Durham Region.

First, look at January 2023 and 2024. On a year-over-year basis, violent crime increased by 14.7%.

Next, let’s look at February below. Violent crime increased in the Durham Region by 27%, a substantial increase.

Out of curiosity, I decided to look up the statistics for property crimes and roadway safety for the same period.

First, let’s look at property crimes for January. The statistics reveal an increase of 9.3% compared to January 2023.

Next is February of 2024 compared to 2023, which reveals a whopping 20.6% increase.

Then, there are the roadway safety statistics.

Take a look at January first. As one can see, collisions increased by 16.23%.

While this may be attributable to winter weather, I would venture to say that this is more likely due to aggressive driving. After all, we have experienced a very mild winter up here. Heck, I’ve shovelled the driveway only twice!

Let’s move on to February. On a year-over-year basis, collisions in February 2024 increased by 12.35% over last year.

To be clear, I am not engaging in this exercise to be alarmist. I’m just interested in the trends and what we might see for the rest of the year. What is behind the increases in violent crimes, property crimes and increased motor vehicle accidents?

As mentioned above, the incredibly mild winter weather may affect the increased crime statistics. The correlation between hot summer weather and increased crime has long been known. Could this be true of the warmer-than-usual winter weather? I’d like to know.

Or is this a reflection of the current state of the Canadian economy? In a prior post, I noted the correlation between increased interest rates and crime. One big issue here is the housing market, particularly mortgages. There are significant differences between mortgages in the US and Canada. In the US, one can take out a 30-year mortgage at a fixed interest rate for the entire term. The monthly payment never varies for the entire term.

On the other hand,

The standard mortgage in Canada isn’t the 30-year fixed, as it is in the U.S., but a five-year mortgage amortized over 25 years. That means the loan balance has to be refinanced at the end of five years, exposing the borrower to any increase in rates that has occurred in the interim. Prepayment penalties for borrowers hoping to exploit a decline in rates, on the other hand, are very steep.

Los Angeles Times

This means many Canadian households face a massive increase in their monthly mortgage payments in the next few years. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that households are pulling back on spending to account for the increased rates. While Canada’s economy isn’t technically in a recession, it’s quite weak. The Canadian economy expanded at an annualized rate of one percent in the fourth quarter of 2023. Not great.

Is the Canadian economy the reason for the increased crime rates in January and February compared to last year? Maybe. Not sure.

Or is this because the world has changed after the pandemic? It seemed to have worsened homelessness, political polarization, mental health issues and health care. I have seen more disrespect and aggressiveness in the past couple of years than before 2020.

Could this explain the increased crime rates for the first two months of this year? Again, who knows?

Is this just a temporary blip due to the incredibly mild winter season, or is it the start of a long-term trend?

We shall see.

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