# Is There A Connection between El Niño and Increased Crime?

- Link: https://brianejohns.com/2023/07/13/is-there-a-connection-between-el-nino-and-increased-crime/
- Published: 2023-07-13T11:30:00-04:00
- Author: Brian Johns

Some people who study how countries interact with each other have noticed a connection
between a country having fewer people and the chances of war. They believe that 
a country is more likely to start a war if: 1. It is going through a catastrophic
demographic decline; 2. The nation in question has nuclear weapons; 3. It wants 
to return to a glorious past; and 4. An aging autocratic leader runs it.

Of course, Russia fits the above profile due to its invasion of Ukraine. So does
China. Some fear that China will attempt to invade Taiwan in the next few years.

Anyway, I think it’s fair to say that this predictive model is new as we’ve never
encountered any nation with the above conditions until recently. As such, there 
may be a great deal of discussion as to the validity of this predictive model. It
may be ditched or refined further. I think this international relations model is
valid for what it’s worth. But I ain’t no international relations expert.

Speaking of predictive models…….

## In light of the recent announcement that another El Niño cycle has started, one wonders, “Are there any predictive models connecting El Niño cycles to increased crime rates?”

Why El Niño? Because scientists have determined that it has come back for the first
time in seven years.

Please note: While I may not possess expertise in weather, climate change, or El
Niño, I approach this topic with a serious and nerdy self-defence perspective. So,
fasten your seatbelts as we delve into the intriguing realm of weather phenomena.

Before we explore the El Niño phenomenon, let’s take a quick look at the connection
between heat and crime rates.

To begin with, police departments have often [observed that violent crimes often increase with hot weather](https://esfandilawfirm.com/do-seasons-weather-affect-crime-trends/).
See this chart:

![](https://i0.wp.com/brianejohns.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screen-Shot-2023-
07-09-at-10.30.00-PM.png?resize=1024%2C674&ssl=1)

Note the chart comes from this Washington Post [article](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/07/16/two-new-studies-warn-that-hotter-world-will-be-more-violent-one/).

This is fairly common knowledge among police officers and departments.

Spike Lee’s “_Do The Right Thing_” delved into the intersection of scorching hot
weather and rising racial tensions. Watch the movie, and you can literally feel 
the hot summer day come off the screen.

If you are not able to view this video, go [here](https://youtu.be/yVAD4fYRcvA).

I won’t dwell too much on the relationship between hot weather and increased crime
rates. It seems widely accepted among police departments, police officers and criminologists.

## Climate Change and Crime.

In addition, several studies suggest a relationship between [climate change and an increase in violent crime](https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/publications/awp/awp8).
However, one [criticism of the suggested linkage](https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/centers/mrcbg/files/ranson_2012-8.FINAL.pdf)
between climate change and crime rates is that:

> However, despite the strength of this relationship, there is little evidence on
> how weather affects patterns of criminal behavior over longer time scales. In 
> particular, there is great uncertainty about how climate change is likely to affect
> the incidence of crime.

A quick review of this issue indicates some fuzziness on this issue. For example,“
climate change *may* affect crime rates.” Or “climate change may result in more 
violent crime in general.” In general?

I don’t doubt that criminologists or criminal justice experts will conduct many 
studies to address the question of the impact of climate change on violent crime
or unrest. I have a feeling as to what the likely answer will be. But this gut feeling
must be backed by evidence or a strong statistical basis.

_Fun fact: Did you know that the French Revolution was preceded by climate chaos(
the coldest winter in 100 years up to 1788 followed by an extraordinarily hot summer
in 1789)?_ And this was under natural conditions.

## Anyway, might it be more useful to use a time-limited event like El Niños to answer how a climate event impacts criminality?

Scientists say that El Niño happens, on average, every two to seven years. These
occurrences usually go on for about nine to 12 months.

## What is El Niño?

El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by warmer Pacific Ocean surface temperatures,
specifically in the central and eastern parts of the tropical Pacific. This phenomenon
occurs irregularly and can significantly impact global climate patterns, causing
disruptions in weather conditions worldwide. El Niño often leads to above-average
rainfall in some regions and drought conditions in others. It can affect agriculture,
and fisheries, and even influence the occurrence of extreme weather events like 
hurricanes.

As a [CBC article notes](https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/el-nino-wmo-canada-1.6896590),

> “The onset of El Niño will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature
> records and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the
> ocean,” WMO Secretary General Prof. Petteri Taalas said in a statement on Tuesday.
> While it’s a natural phenomenon, this is the first time El Niño has happened on
> top of a baseline of so much human-caused warming, leading the WMO to say it is“
> playing out in uncharted waters.”

Given the above, it’s just a matter of Googling (1) “El Niño and crime rates; (2)“
Does El Niño result in increased crime rates?” (3) “Does El Niño affect crime rates?”
and (4) “Does La Niña lead to decreased crime rates?”

![](https://i0.wp.com/brianejohns.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Blog-Supporters-
Thank-You.png?resize=940%2C788&ssl=1)

## To my surprise, the scholarship on this question is virtually non-existent.

Specifically, I found no article or treatises connecting El Niño to increased crime.

One article explored the relationship between [El Niño and violent conflict](https://www.npr.org/2011/08/24/139914440/el-nino-seen-as-trigger-for-violence-in-the-tropics#:~:text=Scientists%20say%20there's%20a%20link,appears%20in%20the%20journal%20Nature.).
It doesn’t address my question.

The only other treatise/article remotely relevant was one by a [criminal defense law firm in California](https://esfandilawfirm.com/do-seasons-weather-affect-crime-trends/).
Generally speaking, this article supports the theory that “_crime rates tend to 
go up as the weather gets hotter_.”

As of this writing, nothing indicates that any articles have been written specifically
about El Niño and crime rates. I admit that I am very surprised by this.

One last thought that just popped into my head. How will [rising interest rates](https://brianejohns.com/2022/07/27/blog-macro-awareness/)
and El Niño affect societal stress? I have a gut feeling as to what the answer might
be. But, again, we run into a lack of scholarship on this issue. Oh yes, add in 
the [emerging worries about AI](https://brianejohns.com/2024/01/10/will-ai-result-in-increased-violence/).

## Unfortunately, this post ends on an inconclusive note.

The bottom line is that the scholarship on the connection between El Niño and increased
crime is non-existent. All we have, for now, is a strong correlation between hot
weather and increased crime.

I’ll let you know if I encounter any article or treatise addressing this question!
Have any of you encountered any articles on this topic? If so, let me know!

## Additional Reading

 * [Macro Awareness for Self Protection](https://brianejohns.com/2022/07/27/blog-macro-awareness/)
 * [The Learning Cycle](https://brianejohns.com/2020/02/24/blog-the-learning-cycle/)
 * [My Favorite Boxing Movies](https://brianejohns.com/2024/02/07/my-favorite-boxing-movies/)
 * [Unveiling the Statistics: Violent Crime in Durham Region](https://brianejohns.com/2024/03/28/an-uptick-of-violent-crime/)
 * [The Rise of the Hostility Era](https://brianejohns.com/2023/01/09/rise-of-the-hostility-era/)

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