# The Coming Winter

- Link: https://brianejohns.com/2021/11/01/blog-the-coming-winter/
- Published: 2021-11-01T11:30:00-04:00
- Author: Brian Johns

## Uncertainty

No one can predict with any certainty what may happen this coming winter. I think
that one can safely say that, as far as Canada is concerned, there will probably
not be another COVID-19 wave due to the high vaccination rates. On the other hand,
the vaccination rate is lower in the United States, and it may be more likely to
have regionalized outbreaks.

However, unlike last winter, COVID-19 is not the only concern. On top of this pandemic,
there are concerns about the following:

 1. Whether the seasonal flu comes back this winter. Last year, the seasonal flu was
    a non-factor due to lockdowns, masks, and social distancing. The situation is different
    this time around. How will it play out as far as the seasonal flu season? Some 
    wonder if combining COVID-19 cases and the seasonal flu might overwhelm the healthcare
    system. We don’t know.
 2. The rising price of gas. Consumers are sensitive to rising prices at the gas pump.
 3. Ditto for natural gas. Consumers will likely react to the increase in natural gas
    and gas prices by cutting back on spending elsewhere.
 4. General inflation is a result of rising demand and supply chain troubles.
 5. The stock market has been on a tear since the 2008 financial crisis. Some analysts
    are concerned that it is due for a significant correction. The psychology of the
    stock market can affect people by causing them to shut their wallets and purses.
 6. Concerns about the price of housing in the US and Canada exist. The housing market
    in the Toronto area, for example, is bonkers. Is a correction coming down the pike?

Scenarios 2, 3, and 4 are the most likely to impact all of us. There is much uncertainty
concerning scenarios 1, 5, and 6. That said, I don’t recall seeing this combustible
mix of scenarios potentially affecting small businesses in my lifetime. It will 
be interesting to see how the winter season unfolds.

## Of course, I am considering the potential effect on the 󠀁[martial arts industry](https://brianejohns.com//2017/01/16/blog-the-state-of-the-filipino-martial-arts-industry/)󠁿. That said, I am a complete nerd for economic information and don’t think I’ve ever seen this constellation of potential issues.

As many have noted in discussion forums, the [martial arts industry](https://brianejohns.com/2020/04/14/blog-post-lockdown-thoughts/)
has been devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic. I have seen several schools in my 
area shut down permanently. As some of you know, my own business went under primarily
due to erroneous accounting advice by a deceased accountant. There is no doubt, 
though, that the pandemic led to a huge loss of revenue for my business.

As you can see from the above list, the long-term consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic
may manifest themselves for several years. There is much uncertainty ahead for the
martial arts industry. How will potential customers respond to the above scenarios?
We shall see. We must be creative in attracting and expanding our student bases 
in these uncertain times.

How will this turn out? Some scenarios may turn out to be nothing burgers, and some
may come to fruition. The bottom line is that many potential problems and challenges
are ahead.

We don’t know. We shall see.

It’s prudent to plan for the worst-case scenario, though.

## This Week’s Video

This video was the result of a poll that I posted on YouTube. The poll asked what
kind of material my subscribers wanted to see. I gave them three options: (1) stick
material, (2) empty-hand material, or (3) stick to empty-hand translation. Seven
responded and unanimously chose option (3).

The result is in the below video. I had a blast doing this video with Eric. Check
it out! Subscribe to my channel while you’re at it!

If you are not able to view the video, click [here](https://youtu.be/rutM2AO2HaQ).

## Inspiration

No matter what happens now or in the future, you must keep plugging away at it daily.
So, in this light, here’s something to inspire you! I don’t know what will happen
if this doesn’t get you going!

If you are not able to see the video, click [here](https://youtu.be/p3xACDsOoc8).

## Additional Reading

 * [YouTube, Zoom, and Cross-Training](https://brianejohns.com/2021/03/29/blog-youtube-zoom-and-cross-training/)
 * [Friday Recommendation #19](https://brianejohns.com/2023/09/08/friday-recommendation-19/)
 * [Post Lockdown Thoughts](https://brianejohns.com/2020/04/14/blog-post-lockdown-thoughts/)
 * [Five Great Ways to Get Popeye’s Forearms!](https://brianejohns.com/2024/01/31/blog-five-great-ways-to-get-popeyes-forearms/)
 * [Taking The Leap](https://brianejohns.com/2018/06/02/blog-taking-the-leap/)

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